The excitement of Emmy nomination morning fades quickly for studios and networks, because the more daunting question is always the same: How do we actually win?
It’s tempting to judge frontrunners based on sheer nomination tallies. If we followed that logic, drama series “Severance” with 27 nods, satirical comedy “The Studio” with a record-breaking 23, and the villainous limited series “The Penguin” with 24 would seem like the ones to beat. But this is the Emmys — nothing is ever that simple.
Looking at the drama categories, the race looks to shape up with Apple TV+’s “Severance” versus HBO Max’s critically acclaimed freshman entry “The Pitt,” which earned a solid 13 nominations.
On Emmy night, winning is rarely about just one factor. It’s about crafting the “winning package,” and both “Severance” and “The Pitt” performed exceptionally well with the Television Academy’s four largest branches: Executives, Actors, Writers, and Editors.
Courtesy of Apple TV+
In lead drama actor category, Adam Scott (“Severance”) and Noah Wyle (“The Pitt”) are in a season-long faceoff. Wyle, nominated four times more than 25 years ago for “ER,” might finally get his moment.
Ben Stiller’s riveting finale for “Severance,” titled “Cold Harbor,” could give him the edge in directing. But with co-director Jessica Lee Gagné also nominated, the threat of vote-splitting looms. Just ask “Shōgun” last year.
Britt Lower (“Severance”) also has a shot in lead drama actress, especially as the legendary Kathy Bates is “Matlock’s” sole nominee. Historically, no actor has won when they’re the only nominee representing their series — a 20-year trend that Bates hopes to buck.
Meanwhile, Tramell Tillman could make history as the wordsmith and mysterious Milchik in “Severance.” If he wins the supporting drama actor award, he’ll be the first Black performer to ever win that category, making this one to watch.
In comedy, the conversation isn’t whether “The Studio” can win, but rather: how many will it win?
The freshman satire stomped the nomination record previously held by “Ted Lasso,” and tied “The Bear” for the most-nominated comedy of all time. While “The Bear” posted substantial numbers again, its third season wasn’t as critically adored as its earlier ones. Meanwhile, “Hacks” had a solid showing but missed a major nomination for supporting actor Paul W. Downs.
Seth Rogen, Kathryn Hahn, Chase Sui Wonders and Ike Barinholtz in “The Studio”
Courtesy of Apple TV+
Seth Rogen — nominated for producing, directing, writing, and starring in “The Studio” — could join the elite club of individuals who won four Emmys in one night, alongside Moira Demos (2016), Amy Sherman-Palladino (2018), and Dan Levy (2020).
Supporting comedy actor could go in several directions: Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) is a sentimental favorite with his first-ever Emmy nom, while two-time champ Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) and scene-stealer Ike Barinholtz (“The Studio”) are strong contenders.
On the actress side, Catherine O’Hara — nominated for both “The Studio” and a guest turn on “The Last of Us” — could be a spoiler in supporting comedy actress. With “Abbott Elementary” earning its lowest nomination count to date (just six), the door may finally be open for overdue contenders like Janelle James or “Hacks” standout Hannah Einbinder.
Stephen Graham as Eddie Miller and Christine Tremarco as Manda Miller in “Adolescence.”
Courtesy of Netflix
The limited or anthology categories are where things get heated.
While “The Penguin” lived up to expectations with 24 nominations, the surprise standout was the British drama “Adolescence,” which scored 13 nods and is considered a frontrunner in at least six categories. Owen Cooper and Erin Doherty are formidable contenders in the supporting acting categories, and the show is also a major threat in the directing, writing and cinematography categories.
Colin Farrell’s turn as the sinister mob boss in “The Penguin” will face stiff competition from Stephen Graham’s gripping performance in “Adolescence.” This one could go down to the wire on Sept. 14.
In lead limited actress, it’s a tight race between Cristin Milioti (“The Penguin”) and Emmy winner Michelle Williams (“Dying for Sex”).
If voters are judging solely on “The Bear” Season 3, Liza Colón-Zayas could be headed for another win after becoming the first Latina to take home supporting actress in a comedy last year.
But “The Bear” is in murky territory. Several past acting wins for the show — like those for Moss-Bachrach and Ayo Edebiri — seemed to come a season early. With mixed buzz around Season 4, and with creator Christopher Storer snubbed in both writing and directing, its winning momentum might be waning.
The final round Emmy voting begins Aug. 18. Expect a flurry of campaigning, strategy and last-minute narrative shifts. The first out-the-gate winner predictions are below. The official Emmy predictions pages will be updated over the next week.
Michael Buckner
Drama Series: “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Comedy Series: “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Limited Series: “Adolescence” (Netflix)
TV Movie: “Rebel Ridge” (Netflix)
Lead Drama Actor: Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Lead Comedy Actor: Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Lead Actor Limited: Colin Farrell, “The Penguin” (HBO Max)
Lead Drama Actress: Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Lead Comedy Actress: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Lead Actress Limited: Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX)
Supporting Drama Actor: Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Comedy Actor: Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Actor Limited: Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Supporting Drama Actress: Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Supporting Comedy Actress: Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Actress Limited: Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Guest Drama Actor: Shawn Hotosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Guest Drama Actress: Kaitlyn Dever, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)
Guest Comedy Actor: Bryan Cranston, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Guest Comedy Actress: Julianne Nicholson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Competition Program: “The Traitors” (Peacock)
Structured Reality: “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
Unstructured Reality: “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
Talk Series: “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
Scripted Variety: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
Variety Special Live: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Variety Special Pre-Recorded: “Adam Sandler: Love You” (Netflix)
Doc Series: “Social Studies” (FX)
Doc Special: “Will & Harper” (Netflix)
Hosted Nonfiction: “Conan O’Brien Must Go” (HBO Max)
Exceptional Merit: “I Am Celine Dion” (Prime Video)
Directing Drama: Ben Stiller, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Directing Comedy: Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Directing Limited: Philip Barantini, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Directing Documentary: Matt Wold, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max)
Directing Variety Special: Liz Patrick, “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Directing Variety Series: Paul Pennolino, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
Directing Reality: Cian O’Clery, “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
Writing Drama: “The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Full-Moon Party” by Mike White
Writing Comedy: “Hacks” (HBO Max) – “A Slippery Slope” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
Writing Limited: “Adolescence” (Netflix) – Series by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham
Writing Variety Series: “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
Writing Variety Special: “Your Friend, Nate Bargatze” (Netflix)
Writing Nonfiction: “Martha” (Netflix) by RJ Cutler
Game Show: “Jeopardy” (ABC)
Game Show Host: Jimmy Kimmel, “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” (ABC)
Reality Host: Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)
Casting Drama: “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Casting Comedy: “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Casting Limited: “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Casting Reality: “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
Animated Program: “The Simpsons” (Fox)
Voiceover: Alan Tudyk, “Andor” (Disney+)
Short Form Performer: Tom Segura, “Bad Thoughts” (Netflix)
Production Contemporary One Hour: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Homecoming”
Production Period Fantasy One Hour: “Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”
Production Narrative Half Hour: “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) – “Headhunting”
Production Variety/Reality: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) – “Host: Lady Gaga”
Production Variety Special: “The Oscars” (ABC)
Cinematography Series Half-Hour: “The Studio” (Apple TV+) – “The Oner”
Cinematography Series One Hour: “Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Hello, Ms. Cobel”
Cinematography Limited: “Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 2”
Cinematography Nonfiction: “100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”
Cinematography Reality: “Life Below Zero” (National Geographic) – Series Body of Work
Period Costumes: “Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Into the Light”
Fantasy/Sci-Fi Costumes: “Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “Follow Me My Friend”
Contemporary Costumes: “The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Same Spirits, New Forms”
Contemporary Costumed Limited: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Great or Little Thing”
Editing Drama: “Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”
Editing Comedy: “The Bear” (FX) – “Tomorrow”
Editing Limited: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Great or Little Thing”
Editing Multi-Cam: “Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu) – “Here’s to You, Mrs. Scneiderman”
Editing Variety Programming: “Ali Wong: Single Lady” (Netflix)
Editing Variety Segment: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC) – Physical Comedy (segment)
Editing Nonfiction: “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (HBO Max)
Editing Reality: “The Traitors” (Peacock) – “Let Battle Commence”
Editing Unstructured: “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”
Makeup Contemporary Non-Prosthetic: “The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Day One”
Makeup Period Fantasy Non-Prosthetic: “House of the Dragon” (HBO Max) – “The Red Dragon and the Gold”
Makeup Variety Nonfiction Reality: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV) – “Bitch, I’m a Drag Queen”
Makeup Prosthetic: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “After Hours”
Hairstyling Contemporary: “Emily in Paris” (Netflix) – “Back on the Crazy Horse”
Hairstyling Period Fantasy: “Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Old Friends”
Hairstyling Variety Nonfiction Reality: “The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula” (Shudder) – “Welcome to Hell”
Sound Mixing Comedy Drama One Hour: “Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Cold Harbor”
Sound Mixing Limited: “Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 1”
Sound Mixing Comedy Drama Half-Hour: “The Bear” (FX) – “Doors”
Sound Mixing Variety: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Sound Mixing Nonfiction: “Music by John Williams” (Disney+)
Sound Mixing Reality: “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”
Sound Editing Comedy Drama One Hour: “The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Through the Valley”
Sound Editing Comedy Drama Half-Hour: “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO Max) – “Prelude”
Sound Editing Animated: “Star Trek: Lower Decks” (Paramount+) – “The New Next Generation”
Sound Editing Limited: “Black Mirror” (Netflix) – “USS Callister: Into Infinity”
Sound Editing Nonfiction: “100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”
Special Visual Effects Season: “Andor” (Disney+)
Special Visual Effects Single Episode: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Bliss”
Music Composition Series: “The Studio” (Apple TV+) — Antonio Sánchez
Music Limited: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – Mick Giacchino
Music Documentary: “The Americas” (NBC) – Hans Zimmer, Anže Rozman, Kara Talve
Music Direction: “The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar” (Fox)
Music and Lyrics: “Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “The Ballad of the Witches’ Road” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Main Title Music: “Dune: Prophecy” (HBO Max) – Volker Bertelmann
Short Form: “Late Night with Seth Meyers: Corrections” (NBC)
Short Form Nonfiction: “Adolescence: The Making Of Adolescence” (Netflix)
Stunt Comedy: “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
Stunt Drama: “The Boys” (Prime Video)
Stunt Performance: “FBI: Most Wanted” (CBS) – “Moving On”
Choreography Variety: “Beyoncé Bowl” (Netflix)
Choreography Scripted: “Étoile” (Prime Video)
Title Design: “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Commercials: “Batman Vs. Bateman – State Farm”
Narrator: Barack Obama, “Our Oceans” (Netflix)
Emerging Media: “SNL 50th The Anniversary Special: Immersive Experience”
Technical Direction Series: “The Voice” (NBC)
Technical Direction Special: “The Lion King At The Hollywood Bowl” (Disney+)
Lighting Series: “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)
Lighting Special: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
